H-Index
79
Scimago Lab
powered by Scopus
JCR
Clarivate
Analytics
12%
Acceptance
Rate
call: +1.631.470.9640
Mon-Fri 10 am - 2 pm EST

Logo

Medical Science Monitor Basic Research
AmJCaseRep

Annals
ISI-Home

eISSN: 1643-3750

Get your full text copy in PDF

Trends in the Epidemiology of Sexually Transmitted Disease, Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (AIDS), Gonorrhea, and Syphilis, in the 31 Provinces of Mainland China

Xuechen Ye, Jie Liu, Zhe Yi

(Department of Social Medicine, School of Public Health, China Medical University, Shenyang, Liaoning, China (mainland))

Med Sci Monit 2019; 25:5657-5665

DOI: 10.12659/MSM.915732


BACKGROUND: This study aimed to investigate trends in the epidemiology of the leading sexually transmitted diseases (STDs), acquired immune deficiency syndrome (AIDS), gonorrhea, and syphilis, in the 31 provinces of mainland China.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: This retrospective study analyzed the incidence data of STDs from official reports in China between 2004 and 2016. The grey model first order one variable, or GM (1,1), time series forecasting model for epidemiological studies predicted the incidence of STDs based on the annual incidence reports from 31 Chinese mainland provinces. Hierarchical cluster analysis was used to group the prevalence of STDs within each province.
RESULTS: The prediction accuracy of the GM (1,1) model was high, based on data during the 13 years between 2004 and 2016. The model predicted that the incidence rates of AIDS and syphilis would continue to increase over the next two years. Cluster analysis showed that 31 provinces could be classified into four clusters according to similarities in the incidence of STDs. Group A (Sinkiang Province) had the highest reported prevalence of syphilis. Group B included provinces with a higher incidence of gonorrhea, mainly in the southeast coast of China. Group C consisted of southwest provinces with a higher incidence of AIDS.
CONCLUSIONS: The GM (1,1) model was predictive for the incidence of STDs in 31 provinces in China. The predicted incidence rates of AIDS and syphilis showed an upward trend. Regional distribution of the major STDs highlights the need for targeted prevention and control programs.

This paper has been published under Creative Common Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) allowing to download articles and share them with others as long as they credit the authors and the publisher, but without permission to change them in any way or use them commercially.
I agree