H-Index
79
Scimago Lab
powered by Scopus
JCR
Clarivate
Analytics
15%
Acceptance
Rate
call: +1.631.470.9640
Mon-Fri 10 am - 2 pm EST

Logo



eISSN: 1643-3750

Get your full text copy in PDF

Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Predicting Survival in Patients with Thyroid Cancer

Qian Wen, Yong Yu, Jin Yang, Xinwen Wang, Jian Wen, Yuting Wen, Yi Wang, Jun Lyu

(Clinical Research Center, The First Affiliated Hospital of Xi’an Jiaotong University, Xi’an, Shaanxi, China (mainland))

Med Sci Monit 2019; 25:5561-5571

DOI: 10.12659/MSM.915620


BACKGROUND: The AJCC staging system is inadequate for use in patients with thyroid carcinomas. Here, we aimed to establish a nomogram for thyroid cancer, and we compare its prognostic value with the AJCC staging system in adults diagnosed with thyroid carcinoma.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: Patient records were obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Result database. The 8491 included patients were divided into a modeling cohort (n=5943) and a validation cohort (n=2548). The variables included in the modeling cohort were selected using a backward stepwise selection method with Cox regression, and the prognosis nomogram was constructed. In the validation cohort, we compared our survival model with the AJCC prognosis model using the concordance index, the area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, the net reclassification improvement, the integrated discrimination improvement, calibration plotting, and decision curve analysis.
RESULTS: Twelve independent prognostic factors were identified and used to establish the nomogram. In particular, marital status was included in a survival prediction model of thyroid cancer for the first time. The concordance index, area under the time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, net reclassification improvement, integrated discrimination improvement, calibration plotting, and decision curve analysis for the nomogram showed better performance compared to the AJCC staging system.
CONCLUSIONS: We have developed and validated a highly accurate thyroid cancer prognosis nomogram. The prognostic value of the nomogram is better than that of the AJCC staging system alone.

This paper has been published under Creative Common Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0) allowing to download articles and share them with others as long as they credit the authors and the publisher, but without permission to change them in any way or use them commercially.
I agree