18 September 2020 : Database Analysis
Development and Validation of a Prognostic Prediction Model for Postoperative Ovarian Sex Cord-Stromal Tumor PatientsDanming You1ABCDEF, Zuyu Zhang1CDE, Mingzhu Cao2AG*
Med Sci Monit 2020; 26:e925844
BACKGROUND: We developed a nomogram for prognostic prediction of overall survival (OS) in postoperative ovarian sex cord-stromal tumor (SCST) patients and discuss the effect of chemotherapy at various FIGO stages.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: SCST patients after surgery from 2004 to 2015 were enrolled from the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End-Results (SEER) database, matched into pairs by propensity score matching (PSM), and divided into a training set and a validation set. Univariate and multivariate Cox analyses were conducted to identify significant variables for the development of the nomogram. The nomogram model was validated by concordance index (C-index), receiver operating characteristics (ROCs) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA). Survival curves showed the integrative ability of prognostic prediction and the efficacy of chemotherapy.
RESULTS: A total of 913 SCST patients were initially enrolled, and after PSM, 506 patients were included. Age, marital status, CA125 levels, tumor size, FIGO stage, grade, and chemotherapy were indicators for building the OS nomogram. The C-index was 0.850 in the training set and 0.786 in the validation set. Calibration plots were satisfactory and the nomogram had relatively better clinical utility than FIGO stage. The survival analysis showed that the low-risk group had generally longer survival than the high-risk group based on the prognostic score, and chemotherapy had an overall reverse effect on OS.
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram model displays the potential to provide individualized prognosis probability of SCSTs and to aid in clinical decision-making. The unfavorable results of chemotherapy in all stages shows the need for further exploration.
Keywords: Chemotherapy, Adjuvant, nomograms, Prognosis, SEER Program, Sex Cord-Gonadal Stromal Tumors
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