Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Perineural Invasion in Colorectal Cancer
Xiaoliang Huang, Jungang Liu, Guo Wu, Shaomei Chen, Franco Jeen Pc, Weishun Xie, Weizhong Tang
Department of Gastrointestinal Surgery, Affiliated Tumor Hospital of Guangxi Medical University, Nanning, Guangxi, China (mainland)
Med Sci Monit 2019; 25:1709-1717
In colorectal cancer (CRC), perineural invasion (PNI) is usually identified histologically in biopsy or resection specimens and is considered a high-risk feature for recurrence of CRC and is an indicator for adjuvant therapy. Preoperative identification of PNI could help determine the need for adjuvant therapy and the approach to surgical resection. This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram for the preoperative prediction of PNI in patients with CRC.
MATERIAL AND METHODS: A total of 664 patients with CRC from a single center were classified into a training dataset (n=468) and a validation dataset (n=196). The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to select potentially relevant features. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to develop the nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was assessed based on its calibration, discrimination, and clinical utility.
RESULTS: The nomogram consisted of five clinical features and provided good calibration and discrimination in the training dataset, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.704 (95% CI, 0.657–0.751). Application of the nomogram in the validation cohort showed acceptable discrimination, with the AUC of 0.692 (95% CI, 0.617–0.766) and good calibration. Decision curve analysis (DCA) showed that the nomogram was clinically useful.
CONCLUSIONS: The nomogram developed in this study might allow clinicians to predict the risk of PNI in patients with CRC preoperatively. The nomogram showed favorable discrimination and calibration values, which may help optimize preoperative treatment decision-making for patients with CRC.
Keywords: Colorectal Neoplasms, Decision Support Techniques, nomograms