01 October 2005
Increasing incidence of malignant melanoma of skin can be modeled as a response to suddenly imposed environmental stress
Orjan HallbergMed Sci Monit 2005; 11(10): CR457-461 :: ID: 430300
Abstract
Background:The aim was to determine whether the increasing age-standardized incidence of malignant melanoma of the skin in some countries can be explained by a suddenly imposed environmental stress to the whole population.Material/Methods:Incidence data were retrieved from the cancer registries of the USA and four Nordic countries. A four-parameter incidence model was developed and its parameters were varied to optimally fit age-standardized data from the investigated countries. Two parameters were used for a log-normally distributed exposure time to illness; the other two were the starting year for the imposed exposure and the critical age (age at which the exposure starts having an effect on incidence). Reported age-specific incidence data from the investigated countries were also analyzed to see at what age melanoma of the skin actually starts to occur.Results:Similar parameters for exposure time to illness were calculated for all five countries. The staring year was found to be 1967 for the USA, while for the Nordic countries it ranged between 1953 to 1955. The modeled critical age for all countries varied from 13 to 18 years; the actual average critical age was found to be 14.3 years for the investigated countries analyzed based on reported age-specific data.Conclusions:An environmental stress suddenly imposed in the mid-1950s for the Nordic countries and in the late 1960s for the USA, affecting people from 13 years of age and above, can mathematically explain the age-specific pattern for melanoma of the skin noticed in the investigated countries.
Keywords: Environmental Exposure, Age Distribution, Incidence, Melanoma - etiology, Registries, Scandinavia - epidemiology, Skin Neoplasms - etiology, Sunlight, United States - epidemiology
Editorial
01 April 2024 : Editorial
Editorial: Forty Years of Waiting for Prevention and Cure of HIV Infection – Ongoing Challenges and Hopes for Vaccine Development and Overcoming Antiretroviral Drug ResistanceDOI: 10.12659/MSM.944600
Med Sci Monit 2024; 30:e944600
In Press
06 Mar 2024 : Clinical Research
Comparison of Outcomes between Single-Level and Double-Level Corpectomy in Thoracolumbar Reconstruction: A ...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.943797
21 Mar 2024 : Meta-Analysis
Economic Evaluation of COVID-19 Screening Tests and Surveillance Strategies in Low-Income, Middle-Income, a...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.943863
10 Apr 2024 : Clinical Research
Predicting Acute Cardiovascular Complications in COVID-19: Insights from a Specialized Cardiac Referral Dep...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.942612
06 Mar 2024 : Clinical Research
Enhanced Surgical Outcomes of Popliteal Cyst Excision: A Retrospective Study Comparing Arthroscopic Debride...Med Sci Monit In Press; DOI: 10.12659/MSM.941102
Most Viewed Current Articles
17 Jan 2024 : Review article
Vaccination Guidelines for Pregnant Women: Addressing COVID-19 and the Omicron VariantDOI :10.12659/MSM.942799
Med Sci Monit 2024; 30:e942799
14 Dec 2022 : Clinical Research
Prevalence and Variability of Allergen-Specific Immunoglobulin E in Patients with Elevated Tryptase LevelsDOI :10.12659/MSM.937990
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e937990
16 May 2023 : Clinical Research
Electrophysiological Testing for an Auditory Processing Disorder and Reading Performance in 54 School Stude...DOI :10.12659/MSM.940387
Med Sci Monit 2023; 29:e940387
01 Jan 2022 : Editorial
Editorial: Current Status of Oral Antiviral Drug Treatments for SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Non-Hospitalized Pa...DOI :10.12659/MSM.935952
Med Sci Monit 2022; 28:e935952